Elixir Tokenomics & Airdrop Assessment
First off, please use my referral link to join the Elixir Apothecary campaign (discussed in this post): www.elixir.xyz/refer/beahan7661 I don't know why that's my referral link because I didn't setup any username but it is what it is :)
The Elixir Network is a new primitive, built from the ground up to power liquidity across orderbook exchanges. Elixir enables users to deploy liquidity to pairs and exchanges to build trustless features to enhance their liquidity. They currently have 13K+ validators and running a node is possible through their website.
Elixir is a modular DPoS network built to power liquidity on orderbook exchanges. Elixir is cross chain and composable: enabling orderbook DEXs to natively integrate Elixir into their core infrastructure to unlock retail liquidity for pairs, among other exciting use-cases. The network serves as crucial underlying infrastructure allowing for exchanges and protocols to easily bootstrap liquidity to their books. Elixir has 30+ native integrations into the core infrastructure of leading DEXs.
Elixir currently powers:
50%+ of the orderbook liquidity on Bluefin 20%+ of the orderbook liquidity on Vertex 40%+ of the orderbook liquidity on RabbitX
Upcoming native integrations include dYdX, Hyperliquid, Orderly and 30+ others
Airdrop Campaign
Elixir is running a point-based liquidity mining campaign called the Apothecary. It will last for 20 weeks, until August 15th. During the campaign, 1 million potions (points) are distributed linearly every week to elxETH minters and LPs in sport & perp pools. elxETH holders are getting a 50% boost.
Currently, 47.100 elxETH is minted, which is around $141.300.000 TVL. Another $57.700.000 is in the agg pools, so Elixir TVL is just under $200M.
The Apothecary will run for 12 more weeks, and we can assume to expect more inflows, so an estimate of $300M as average TVL during the rest of the campaign.
elxETH is getting a 50% boost, and elxETH is 75% of TVL, so my estimate is that an average of ~410M units of TVL will get points.
Yes, there are, units, potions, points, boost… which makes the attempt at growth hacking tirelessly complicated and more obscure, but given what information we have we can apply some assumptions and extrapolate the numbers to get to (reasonable, but not within statistical confidence p- or z- level values) a base case scenario and do what can fondly be referred to as “moon math”:
Moon Math
12 weeks are left so 12M points left This means 1 unit of TVL will get ~0.03 points. 10,000 units of TVL will get you 300 points. You need 10,000 USDC for 10,000 units of TVL or $7,400 (2.2ETH) in elxETH (incorporating the boost)
How much will points be worth? Elixir raised at $800M FDV, with participation from Mysten Labs, Maelstrom, Manifold, Arthur Hayes, Amber Group, and others. I expect it will start trading at around $3B. Let’s assume the project allocates 5% for the season 1 drop. Given this, 5% should be around $150M in tokens.
Can we summarize all this? Let’s give it a try:
At the end of the Apothecary campaign, there will be 20,000,000 points, so the point value should be around $7.20.
Currently, Elixir points are trading around $5.5 on Whales Market (but the trading volume is yet insignificant)
By these estimates, depositors should/could get: 🎁$2200 in Elixir tokens per 10,000 USDC deposited. This is roughly equal to ~95% APR. -or- 🎁$2200 in Elixir tokens per 2.2 ETH deposited into elxETH. This is comparable to ~142% APR.
Now, the Disclaimers:
-I am not invested or have any money in Elixir as of the current time of writing and am simply sharing my considerations and rough analysis as I make them, writing the review as I go through my own decision whether to get involved or tie up my own liquidity in it. Which is a scarce resource, so it may or may not supersede the current allocations I’ve already made (everyone’s threshold is different).
-This is not by any means financial advice (TNFA) and of course I would love to join heads in DYOR analysis of differing opinions from experts such as yourselves
-This is moon math, filled with assumptions and no concrete announcements or decisions made from the team - I do not have any inside information and am not in contact with the team in any way
-Airdrop could be postponed, points could and likely will get diluted, and the project could always drop off or fail in the marketing communications or community activation
-Elixir could at anytime get exploited, but the team is doxxed and hopefully won’t rug
Good luck, fellow degens and decentralized analysts! Let me know in the comments what you think? Show Less
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