1- Macro - S&P and the War <- 2- BTC - Chart and Dominance 3- On-chain and ETFs

This weekend events triggered new downs on the market, as for 4.16.24 I bring a combined vision to understand what are the outcomes and where we are.

Will war escalate? 🤔

In early April, the Iranian consulate in Damascus was attacked, and the government accuses Israel of the attack, which resulted in the death of one of Iran's top commanders.

Days later Iran accuses Israel and this weekend carries out retaliation, causing an estimated cost of 1.3 billion dollars for missile defense and swarms of drones sent.

In a hurry, there was a UN meeting, and although they didn't come to a resolution, there was a sense that both sides were 'even'. Russia and China reiterated that they didn't see the Iranian attack as harmful but rather as a response. The US government, on the other hand, viewed it as condemnable, but since there were no significant damages to Israel, everything should be resolved.

The Traditional Markets Response 📉📈

The S&P closed Monday with a 1.75% drop, and today it remains undecided and sideways, close to the previous day's close, holding just above the 5,000 points mark, revisiting February's prices.

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil, which typically reacts strongly to conflicts in the Middle East, surprised by staying sideways and respecting the $90 per barrel resistance.

Immigration, Interest Rates, and War

Recently, Jerome Powell spoke about the impacts of illegal immigration on American soil, which had significant and positive macroeconomic impacts on the unemployment rate, leading to the maintenance of American interest rates (FFR). Along with the war events, this has caused the Dollar Dominance (DXY) to accumulate a 2.15% increase in less than a week, affecting the world's currency exchange rates.🌍💵

What now? We're in a new territory for macro!

This phenomenon could indicate that 'this time is different,' based on the premise that, with the inverted yield curve, it may result in periods of recession in the United States. Below [Image2] is a graph in orange indicating the time in months of the inverted yield curve (FFR - 10-year Bonds), and in gray, the measured recession. 📉📊

Wrapping it up

The benefit of the doubt is given by the positive demographic flow in the country, but it's worth noting that with economic partners in Europe in crisis, the trend is for the United States to also suffer the consequences. 🌍📉 Show Less