Recovery! - M2C June 25th 1/3

1 - Macroeconomic Scope <- 2 - Crypto - Fundamentals & Triggers 3 - On-chain, Futures, and Options

Review of Last Week's Closures

Last week closed with lukewarm macroeconomic data, interest rates holding steady in Australia and Great Britain (BoE). In Germany, economic sentiment and the ongoing decline in industrial indices also diminished business climate in the Eurozone's largest economy. The S&P ended oscillating near its historic high, retracting within normal patterns, in a visible and healthy correction as expected.

Macro Summary

This week begins with doubts about the solvency of the Japanese financial system after the announcement that Norinchukin Bank will liquidate $63 billion in combined U.S. and European Treasury securities. This is a yellow flag for the global market, given that the Eurodollar (the financial market of dollars outside the U.S.) is sensitive to liquidity fears, and the FED's assistance has been limited after the end of the liquidity program for banks holding U.S. bonds, the BTFP, in March this year. The BTFP closed the window for new contracts on March 13, starting a decline as existing loan maturities are paid. In addition to banking data, we have the earnings season of listed companies to set the market tone.

Source Source

Indicators This Week

Macro Calendar and Explanations: It's important to note that the most crucial data this week will be released on Friday, the 28th, the Core Price Index in the U.S. Additionally,

• Germany (DE) Indicators:
  • Jun 24: Business Climate - Below expectations
  • Jun 26: GFK Consumer Confidence JUL
• Australia (AU) Indicators:
  • Jun 24: Westpac Consumer Confidence (variation) JUN
• Canada (CA) Indicators:
  • Jun 25: Annual Inflation Rate MAY
• United States (US) Indicators:
  • Jun 27: Monthly Durable Goods Orders MAY
  • Jun 27: Final Q1 GDP Growth
  • Jun 28: Monthly Core PCE Price Index MAY
  • Jun 28: Monthly Personal Income MAY
  • Jun 28: Monthly Personal Spending MAY

France and Italy:

• France (FR) Indicators:
  • Jun 28: Preliminary Annual Consumer Price Index JUN
• Italy (IT) Indicators:
  • Jun 28: Preliminary Annual Consumer Price Index JUN This week, we highlight the ongoing uncertainty surrounding both countries, which continue a steady GDP (Gross Domestic Product) decline since the 2000s.

Macroeconomics - Technical Analysis Triggers

Charts: S&P: We continue with the Moderate trigger, with a short-term correction ending around 5440 points. Despite not breaking to new highs, the week follows the previously set supports and triggers.

• Optimistic Trigger: Seeing continued rise, the SPX could directly reach the last targets between 5505 and 5556 points, then observe a retraction.
• Moderate Trigger: In this scenario, the retraction would occur over this and next week, returning around 5440 points.
• Pessimistic Trigger: After retraction at 5440 points, the price would reject the support around 5400 points, opening targets between 5300 and 5100 points.

Chart Source

GEX: Market Makers' Gamma Exposure: Given we are at the end of a month whose quarterly options expirations typically add volatility to assets, observing that Gamma exposure of Market Makers has retracted is a positive sign for maintaining the financial market.

Weekly Correlation - S&P, DXY, Gold, and Bitcoin

Linear Correlation Matrix: The linear correlation of assets last week was exacerbated, especially the negative between S&P and Bitcoin, which maintained their inverted trends, besides Gold correcting 2% in just three trading sessions. Show Less