Taiamã Demaman1 - Macroeconomic Scope 2 - Crypto - Fundamentals & Triggers <- 3 - On-chain, Futures, and Options
Crypto
Crypto Summary As mentioned last week, we were expecting a liquidation in the crypto market, which we observed since then. It was driven by inactivity in the futures market and subsequent selling by large players, culminating in a significant drop on the 23rd. Despite this, medium and long-term indicators remain unchanged.
Fundamental News:
The 'great rebalancing' where large investors seek to adjust their portfolios based on risk and future trends, whether due to the commodity cycle or systemic risk. Observing that the demand for bitcoin continues to rise, as seen with Wisconsin's pension fund, Semler Scientific adopting BTC as its primary asset and the curious investment of an incredible 2% of George Soros's portfolio in MicroStrategy, which holds 1% of Bitcoin's supply. Rumors that Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy is in contact with Michael Dell, founder of Dell Technologies, after a tweet about scarcity added value. Dell's company has $5.8 billion in cash with over $36 billion in assets. Will Dell be the next to announce the adoption of the asset?
Triggers
BTC: Bitcoin, which continued to decline over the past days, with 64.5k as a pivotal point for the recent drop, might be finding its local bottom. However, breaks above 62.5k will provide security that further returns below are less likely. It's important to remember we are in the last week of quarterly expirations, and until the end of June 28, volatility could be exacerbated, with June's monthly close being one of the year's most significant. Expecting what might happen until the meeting on the last day of July, the correlation between S&P and BTC is expected to remain inverted, with a possible correction in the index within 21 days, followed by alignment close to the interest rate announcement.
-
Rebound: Short-term recovery requires surpassing 62.5k, while in the medium term, it will be confirmed with a price of 64.5k and preferably 65.8k dollars.
-
Indecision: With prices below 64.5k, lateralization and consolidation to 61.5k dollars could touch 60k dollars but with higher risk.
-
Decline: Closes below 61.5k are seen as a warning to seek the 200-day average around 58k dollars, which, if lost, will signal targets of 55k and 52.5k dollars.
-
Risk: It's worth noting that daily and weekly closes below the EMA200 (200-day average) could trigger medium-term systemic risk.
CRYPTO CORRELATIONS - Bitcoin, Dominance, TOTAL, ETH
Dominance: The dominance, a risk appetite indicator, shows that the drop pleased most of the market, culminating in the abrupt decline of the indicator, leaving the conservative field above 55% and oscillating below 54.77%.
What does this mean? It means that the possibility of a Bitcoin decline is greater while BTC.D is below 55% or below 54.77%.
Fear & Greed: Fear and greed, after weeks staying above 70, now shows that investors, despite the decline in dominance, sold or denoted by news and market sales, fear. This balances sentiment indicators, possibly indicating that the local bottom is being found. Show Less
cyrator_app
cyratorcom