Weekly M2C - 8/8/24 Macro

Hi Everyone, last weeks I've been very busy due to crypto's high volatility so I missed to post the report.

Review of Last Week's Closures πŸŒŸπŸ“ˆ

The week ends magnificently with another strong rise in the United States. The lukewarm and contractionary economic data spark a liquidity cycle, resulting in the American stock market hitting historic highs once again, ignoring political doubts raised by Joe Biden's senility. Some attribute this rise to the manipulated reduction by market makers controlling the volatility index, the VIX, suggesting that moments like these may be a warning that everything could change soon.

Macro Summary πŸ“ŠπŸŒ

The week promises high emotions with Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony this Tuesday and Wednesday. He will express his opinion that inflation and unemployment are reaching equilibrium. Additionally, crucial data such as the inflation figures on Thursday, the 11th, will be released. Moreover, we will have German balance data and growth in the United Kingdom. Thus, we will have another week focused on the American economy, as monetary policy incumbents demand inflation data to be close to or within the 2% annual target.

Indicators for This Week πŸ—“οΈπŸ“ˆ

Macro Calendar and Explanations

Country or Block:

  • Germany (DE) Indicators:

    • July 8: Trade Balance MAY
  • Australia (AU) Indicators:

    • July 8: Westpac Consumer Confidence (variation) JUL
    • July 8: NAB Business Confidence JUN
  • United States (US) Indicators:

    • July 9: Fed Chairman Powell's Testimony
    • July 10: Fed Chairman Powell's Speech
    • July 11: Core Inflation Rate Monthly JUN
    • July 11: Core Inflation Rate Annual JUN
    • July 11: Inflation Rate Monthly JUN
    • July 11: Inflation Rate Annual JUN
    • July 12: Producer Price Index Monthly JUN
    • July 12: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary JUL
  • China (CN) Indicators:

    • July 9: Annual Inflation Rate JUN
    • July 12: Trade Balance JUN
  • United Kingdom (GB) Indicators:

    • July 11: Monthly GDP MAY

Macroeconomics - Technical Analysis Triggers πŸ“‰πŸ”

Charts

S&P: Ends the week renewing historical highs, maintaining the market's positive view on interest rate pricing and momentum maintenance.

Triggers:

  • Optimistic: Reaching the target above 5550 points, we may retrace to 5515 to aim for higher targets.
  • Moderate: With a consolidation view, if it loses 5460 points and the daily trend (green), targets between 5340 and 5188 points can be sought, potentially testing the weekly support (blue), providing the necessary correction for momentum maintenance into the second half of 2024.
  • Pessimistic: Losing the weekly trend (blue), final supports at 4950 points may be touched. To a greater extent, the monthly trend (purple) is lower.

Links:

Weekly Correlation - S&P, DXY, Gold, and Bitcoin πŸ“‰πŸ’Ή

Linear Correlation Matrix: The correlation between SPX and Bitcoin remains negative. Despite the apparent macroeconomic clarity benefiting the S&P price, seeking new highs, Bitcoin has gone in the opposite direction, falling and consolidating over the past 6 weeks. Show Less

2024 Cyrator - Crypto Research Community

Disclaimer: The content presented on this website, including any analyses, reviews, and ratings, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cyrator does not endorse or recommend any financial transactions or investments based on the information available on this platform. Visitors to this site should perform their own due diligence and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Cyrator is not liable for any actions taken, financial or otherwise, based on information or links from this website.