Weekly M2C - Crypto 1/3 - Bitcoin Triggers

Crypto Summary πŸ“‰πŸŒ

The current crypto market has entered a downward spiral caused by the German government's sale of seized bitcoins, combined with sales from MtGox investors who together held over $12 billion. Throughout this week, the government's wallet witnessed transfers to exchanges, leaving less than half of its original holdings. In summary, the crypto market is experiencing an opportunity as these sales will eventually cease. Consequently, technical analysis triggers are activated, indicating key supports for the continuation of this bull cycle.

Fundamental Changes Explained πŸ“°πŸ”

Fundamental News

The FOMO in the Ethereum ETF faded in July but is expected to return by the end of the month. S-1 documents are being resubmitted to the SEC throughout the week and are likely to make headlines. Additionally, wallets are accumulating bitcoins and ethereum while fear spreads on social media.

Triggers πŸš€πŸ“Š

BTC: With daily and weekly closures below the 200-day EMA, prices are more likely to remain below 60k until the end of July. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating in a range between $54k and $58k, extending between $59k and $52k, which is expected to narrow by the end of the month. Possible false breakouts on both sides may occur, and only with futures market triggers can we confirm the end of this accumulation that has persisted since March.

Triggers:

  • Recovery: Short-term recovery requires surpassing between $60k and $62.5k, especially above the daily downtrend (green) that has been in place since June 8. Below this, we maintain the range.
  • Indecision: Keeping price below 58.2k and 57.3 keeps the high chance to bounce at 54k.
  • Decline: Continuation of the decline will only occur with closures below $52k, targeting the main support of this bull cycle at $46.2k.

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