Weekly M2C - Crypto 1/3 - Sentiment and On-chain with Zero Bullshit

Bitcoin Dominance and Sentiment, On-chain developments without bullshitting📉🔗


Dominance, an indicator of risk appetite, repeats for the third consecutive week, surpassing and rejecting 55% and 54.77%, except for a moment on the 4th when the drop to $53,000 affected altcoins more. What does this mean? As long as BTC.D is below 54.77%, we can remain below 60k. Link BTC.D 08/07: Link

Fear & Greed:

The indicator that tested fear levels when BTC was at $63,000 in June now returns with even gloomier readings with Bitcoin testing ten thousand dollars below. This once again diverges from dominance, indicating that indecision in the range excites altcoin investors, whether scared or not.

Coming out of a month of greed, a neutral week followed by an uninterrupted sequence of fear, investors are beginning to think that the bear market has arrived and recall the taste of September 12, 2023, where the price failed to hold above $30,000 for a few days due to ETF rumors that materialized the following week, starting a breakout sequence until February 2024.

On-chain, Futures, and Options:

Summary: This week's on-chain indicators bring warnings of possible continued sales by MtGox investors and the German government. This short-term pressure is seen as an opportunity by large investors who are visibly accumulating.


  • Mt.Gox Transactions: On July 5, a transfer of Bitcoins worth $2.71 billion was noted, with the possibility of being sold by owners receiving around 3 Bitcoins.
  • On-chain - Accumulation: As the price drops, wallets add and accumulate bitcoins, with a notable peak in buying higher than observed during the mid-April drop. Link
  • On-chain - German Government: [Here] is the Arkham Link to chart showing the value of the German government's wallet, which is selling its assets and halving the wallet's value. Unfortunately, for those who do not understand how the market works, due to combined sales, the total value of the wallet fell by half, although only 20% of the total, about 10,000 out of 50,000 bitcoins, was sold. Below is the chart indicating that pressure may continue for a few more weeks. Show Less
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