The Forge NFT Sale is open 

I recently engaged with a fellow analyst, Jeppopo, on a seemingly evergreen Buy review for ETH, so I recognize the humor in writing an evergreen Buy review for BTC.

It is worth noting that I’m writing this in the week following Blackrock's ETF submission for Spot BTC, which drove a +20% price run in just a few days. Additionally, on the day the news broke that the SEC turned down the application, there was a 3% drop in minutes. Moreover, BTC is up over 100% since the beginning of the year.

I want to cover the very intriguing question answered by Glassnode this week…

How many BTC are actually for sale?

You can watch the full video here:

Currently, there are about 19.4M BTC minted BTC; let's break that down:

  • It is generally agreed that about 2M (minimum) BTC are lost forever or is what they call Zombie BTC.

  • Also, based on the On-Chain data (this is what Glassnode is known for) ~16M BTC have not moved in over a week or longer. These are considered the Hodlers who are NOT selling.

  • That leaves just less than 1M tokens that are “For Sale,” these are tokens that have moved (handed hands) in less than a week or are on exchanges for spot, futures, or perpetual trading.

So, long story short, much like a bank lends out the same $1 over and over. There is a very small pool of < 1M BTC that is churning over and over.

So what do you think will happen when the institutional money comes in?

My guess is that the price will explode!

At some price, the Hodler will start to sell, but not all of them, so the supply will open up, but how much is to be seen?

After all, it just did jump 20% on just the news!

So, this is a Strong Buy suggestion for BTC. In the next 6 to 18 months, a BTC under 40K will look like a sweet deal. Show Less


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