As of the time of writing (May 24, 2023), dYdX, a strong project, is displaying bearish signals. Exchange signals appear bullish, while onchain signals indicate a bearish trend.
With a correlation of 0.87 to Bitcoin, it is safe to say that the performance of BTC is affecting dYdX heavily. Currently, 67% of the project is "Out of the Money," meaning the current price is lower than the average cost. However, Figure 1 illustrates that there has been a significant increase in the "In the Money" ratio over the course of this year.
There is a significant concentration of holdings by large holders, accounting for 92% of the total. These holders have held their positions for over a year, resulting in low daily trade volume (as depicted in Figure 2). Only 4% of the holders have held their positions for less than a month, and the average holder holds their tokens for 1.4 years.
Market Cap Information:
- Current Market Cap: $333.9 million
- Last 24h Change: -2.92%
- 52-Week High: $494.64 million (April 19, 2023)
- 52-Week Low: $110.65 million (June 19, 2022)
- All Time High: $1.37 billion (September 30, 2021)
Wallet Holders: The number of wallet holders with funds has nearly tripled since September 2021. As of May 19, 2023, the 30-Day Average stands at 36,090 addresses, with an activity rate of just 0.69%.
Historical Concentration:
- Number of Whales: 14
- Whales Concentration: 67.41% (674.12 million DYDX) The concentration of large holders has remained relatively stable since September 2021 compared to retail investors. Retail investors have shown a slight increase of 0.63% in the last 30 days, but they do not have easy access to dYdX.
The market has experienced significant volatility (with an average of 98% over the last 30 days). However, this volatility has not had a substantial impact on the price of dYdX (as shown in Image 3), which has remained relatively stable around $2, still far below its all-time high.
Address Time Held (30-Day Change)
- Hodlers (1Y+): +3.75%
- Cruisers (1-12M): +7.48%
- Traders (<1M): -53.44%
Ownership (30-Day Change)
- Hodlers (1Y+): -0.59%
- Cruisers (1-12M): +4.84%
- Traders (<1M): -24.68%
Conclusion: Considering the lack of significant influences on the price of dYdX and the strong belief among holders, it is puzzling that the price has not increased. Image 4 provides some insight into this question. The tokenomics of the project have led to a continuous increase in supply, which was a deliberate choice. There are strong bearish signals, but there's a continues growing interest and adoption in the project and there has been a significant increase in the "In the Money" ratio over the course of the year. These findings leave me with mixed feelings about this analysis, and I would rate it 3 stars. Show Less
