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Macro to Crypto - 14.8.24 - A Decisive Week by Taiamã Demaman 1/2

1 - Macro - US Still Strong <- 2 - Crypto

In a week of possible market inflection, we had Jerome Powell's comment in Amsterdam about the possibility of interest rates remaining on hold for even longer, increasing the tension on risk assets 📉. Still in the same morning, the Producer Price Index data exceeded expectations, with 0.5% inflation, indicating a feedback loop of Consumer Inflation (IMG1), which is passed on over the months 📊. Tomorrow, 05/15, we will have the last monthly Consumer Inflation data 💸.

Unemployment 📉

With the visible lateralization and no signs of deceleration in American job market, expectations of interest rate cuts decrease significantly 💸. Additionally (IMG3), despite new job openings being at a minimum since February 2021 (8.48 million), layoffs have reached their lowest level since August 2020 (2.10%). Despite this, an increase in unemployment from 3.9% to up to 4.16% is expected by October this year

Dollar Index

Along with these expectations, the dollar dominance index, despite a 1.41% drop in the month, continues in a monthly upward channel, potentially reaching 108 points in the coming months, appreciating against other global currencies, and finally starting a correction, seeking 105 and 104 points or less by the end of the year 📈

To contextualize (IMG4), the estimated global growth for 2024 is 3.1% 📈. While emerging markets grow above 1.9%, the European projection, witch is lowering its fund rates is 0.7% compared to the 2.6% estimate for the United States with higher rates. Show Less

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