Worldcoin 

July 29, 2023 - WorldCoin

Circulating Market Cap (CMC): $255M Fully Diluted Market Cap (FDMC): $22.8B

Users: 2,115,008

That's CMC/user of $127.5 and a FDMC/user of $11,400.

If we compare these metrics to Twitter: FDMC/user of $41B / 354M users = $115.8

So what it comes down to is that WorldCoin appears to be over valued in comparison to Twitter, but given that both companies are aiming to operate as financial institution moving forward, I believe Twitter is significantly under valued. Average LTV of a customer for a bank is $45,600, so I expect Twitter to gain massive value, and WorldCoin to grow significantly their user base over the next few years while maintaining the token price and possibly even increasing the token price by up to 4X from it's current price.

Users currently receive ~$50 for getting their Iris scanned. I got my iris scanned a few days ago, and now the $WLD, and my tokens have disappeared from the wallet. I sent a message to the customer support, no idea if I'll get a reply or not.

If another 50M users join this year and receive 25 $WLD, that's another 1.25B WLD released from a max supply of 10B tokens. At $2.29/WLD, that's $2.8B, is that under the financial capacity of Sam Altman and his investors to cover in the short term? Technically speaking assuming it cost $50 of CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) for any new technology in regards to financial products, that's the average cost for it. So, this is not as bad as it seems, and the airdrop may be lower than expected. Meanwhile, traditional banks have massive overhead compared to a mostly automated financial product like WorldCoin. So, they only need to fund growth with investors money until they start releasing financial products that monetize this crowd of users. We are talking about a large segment of the population that may eventually not even use traditional banks, and big tech companies such as Twitter, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, etc could become bankers for their billions of users. I really don't think a $22.8B FDMC is exaggerated if it's being operated by people with expertise to execute. Even if Twitter, and WorldCoin are in full competition, I believe the outcome is both of them would thrive at the expense of traditional banks. We can expect significant clashes and regulation to hit them in the US, but in many countries in the world, they will be able to operate freely. I believe they have a chance to accomplish what Ripple didn't accomplish. I would value this to hundreds of billions to about a trillion within the next 10 years. I would bet on Twitter (X.com) to win this race, but I believe both projects will generate massive growth for the next decade.

I'm not a fan of the short vesting period of the early investor and team tokens, but at the same time I believe Sam Altman will be pushing WorldCoin for the next few decades. So, 75% of the supply allocated to distribution to the community is good enough for me. I believe they will grow faster than the release of these tokens, so I would say the token price is likely to grow. 6B of these tokens have not be allocated and will be allocated over the spawn of 15 years. I believe they will acquire new users at a speed exceeding 30% month over month for the next few years, and I believe the selling pressure will be below this.

My views on the tokenomic is almost an opposite to what I normally think, however it comes down to believing that their team can execute. Hopefully my 25 WLD tokens for getting my Iris scanned will be recovered. Show Less